The industrial and supply chain of the mining industry adjusts, the global mining development begins a new cycle
The International Mining Research Center of China Geological Survey, Ministry of Natural Resources has released the “Global Mining Development Report 2024” at “Belt and Road” Geoscience Cooperation and Mining Investment Forum of the 26th China Mining Conference and Exhibition on October 16th, 2024. The report comprehensively analyzed the global mining development trend under the new cycle, which is one of the contributions to sustainable development of global mining from Chinese research institutions.
According to the report, the global economy faced growth challenges since 2023. Geopolitical and financial policies have influenced the evolution of the global manufacturing landscape, leading to increased risks in industry and supply chains. The global exploration investment for major solid minerals amounted to USD12.76 billion, down 1.8% year-on-year. The mining financing has reduced, but Mergers and acquisitions amount has increased.
The production, consumption, and trade of Global energy and resources have continued to grow, with adjustments in supply and demand structures. The overall supply and demand for global fossil fuels have both risen. The supply and demand for bulk solid minerals are clearly differentiated: The supply and demand for steel have both fallen, leading to increased oversupply; copper supply grows faster than demand, causing a significant expansion of the supply-demand gap; aluminum supply also outpaces demand, resulting in oversupply. The production of strategic emerging minerals is rapidly increasing, with lithium, cobalt, and nickel all facing oversupply, leading to a noticeable decline in trade volumes. Precious metals gold demand once peaked and then fell back; silver has seen an increase in supply and a decrease in demand; platinum has experienced a decrease in both supply and demand.
In 2023, international mineral product prices generally experienced a downward trend. The energy mineral product prices decline overall. The bulk solid minerals showed increased price volatility. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropped by over 80% during the year. The stock prices of mining companies also had a volatile decline. Major oil and gas companies saw their stock prices decrease, with a significant drop in net profits. Stocks prices for major solid mineral companies initially fell but later recovered, with net profits declining by more than 20%, although overall profits remained high. Strategic emerging mineral companies experienced sharp declines in stock prices, with net profits dropping by more than 60% year-over-year. Gold companies saw continued increases in net profits and market value. The total market value of world’s top 50mining companies has remained relatively stable, yet structural changes have been significant. The global lithium battery industrial chain saw a slowdown in overall demand. Global hydrogen energy projects continued expanding in scale, but actual deployment fell short of expectations.
The report noted that countries continuously updated strategic mineral policies. They implemented various incentive and intervention measures, including forming strategic intergovernmental cooperation or trade agreements on critical minerals, enacting laws and policies to develop critical mineral resources and supply chains, and promoting the coordination of mining projects with infrastructure development. As the new round of technological and industrial revolutions continues advancing, mining technology and equipment have become critical variables in international mining cooperation and competition. Artificial intelligence (AI) is driving a paradigm shift in mineral exploration, offering promising prospects for new quality productive forces in the mining industry. The rapid development of technical equipment for global exploration, R&D, resource recycling and utilization, and other aspects is leading to more efficient, intelligent, high-precision, and low-carbon solutions. Low-grade and hard-to-process ore beneficiation technologies are evolving toward greener and more automated processes, with the development of large-scale, multi-field, automated, and interdisciplinary beneficiation equipment being a key focus for low-grade mineral resources.
Looking to the future, new quality productive forces are driving high-quality development in mining. Advanced technologies such as satellite remote sensing, big data, and the Internet of Things will continue fostering new industries like AI-driver mineral exploration and intelligent mining. The valuation of data assets is expected to lead the way in new global mining infrastructure, enhancing the comprehensive utilization of mineral resources and urban mining, which will provide new momentum for the industry’s development. Guided by the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind, we will see a inevitable extension of industrial chains in mineral-producing regions, with manufacturing and infrastructure powerhouses highlighting competitive advantages. These countries will continue contributing to global mining cooperation. Countries should strengthen collaboration in critical mineral sectors to jointly maintain stable and smooth industrial and supply chains, and to guide and promote resource-saving, intensive, and green development in mining, thereby contributing to global economic growth.